Golf pundits have been saying that Phil Mickelson isn’t ready for the Masters. I’ve been saying, “wait for it.”
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I have heard a lot of talk about how hard it would be for Phil to win the Masters after winning the Houston Open. Most people rely on their intuition about probability instead of actually doing the math.
Phil has been on tour for 20 years and has won 39 tournaments or roughly 2 tournaments per year. He plays on average about 14 tournaments per year so he wins about one of every 7 starts, so the chances of him winning ANY tournament is 14%. The crucial rule of probability is that “the chances of two events happening together are the PRODUCT (multiplied by) of their chances of happening separately”. The chances of him winning any two SPECIFIC tournaments, back to back, majors or otherwise, all things being equal, is 14% times 14% or 1.9%. He has played about 280 tournaments in his career so the odds are that he would win 2 back to back about 5 times in his career or one every 4 years.
Not sure how many times he has done that, but he certainly did it in 2006.
GB
GB that is a very interesting comment with interesting stats. During Masters week though, especially for Phil, I think you can throw that all out.